The NFL season has finally arrived, here’s the Sports Talk Line Fantasy Start or Sit for RBs in Week 1! We take a look at the data behind each matchup as well as injuries, new signings, and our staff’s gut feelings. Please enjoy and remember to visit the Sports Talk Line Fantasy rankings tools each week to give your team the winning edge in your fantasy league!
START
Joe Mixon – Bengals
Mixon is going up against one of last year’s worst run defenses in an ailing Steelers team that allowed 144 first downs on the ground. Burrow can threaten so consistently in the air, which lets the Bengals get ahead and pound out the game with the Oklahoma back. Our fantasy algorithm has him getting 80.9 yards, but we could easily see him getting over 120 against a Steelers team finding their footing after losing Big Ben to retirement.
Johnathan Taylor – Colts
While it seems a little obvious to start a top 3 NFL running back, its EXTRA obvious this week because Taylor is going up against the Texans; one of the worst run defenses last season with 2400 yards and 25 TDs allowed. Our projections have him hitting 104 yards and 0.9 TDs, but you could easily double that this weekend. The Colts are shooting for the playoffs while the Texans are still finding their identity.
JK Dobbins – Ravens
Dobbins is the starter for the Ravens this year and looks to have recovered well from his ACL injury in pre-season of last year. He was explosive for the Ravens in 2020, and could easily get 150 yards with 2 TDs versus the Jets, one of the worst red-zone run defenses in the league.
SIT
Josh Jacobs – Raiders
Josh Jacobs is a great back, and the Chargers run defense was awful last year, but they’ve spent heavily in the offseason to completely re-vamp the run defense. Khalil Mack is consistently graded by PFF as one of the best run-stopping pass-rushers in the league and they’ve also brought in Kyle Van Noy, Sebastian Joseph-Day, and Austin Johnson. Jacobs might find the going tough on the ground as the Raiders resort to using Darren Waller and their new weapon at receiver.
Devin Singletary – Bills
Devin is a great back, but the Rams just signed Bobby Wagner. Seattle’s one shining light on defense, Wagner was singlehandedly responsible for Seattle’s stingy 3.8 Y/A allowed on run defense. They were surprisingly good at stopping the run all year, even as they fought from behind and suffered teams running it down their throat. Now Wagner has Aaron Donald in front of him. That’s a combo at the peak of their mental powers who will make life tough for the Bills starting RB.
Breece Hall – Jets
Jets Nation we know you’re excited about the young rookie and what he can bring to the table, but Baltimore has one of the stingiest run defenses in the league. They allowed 3.8 Y/A last year and only 1436 yards while forcing 8 fumbles. Hall has his work cut out for him, and might not even see much playing time if Baltimore gets ahead early.
