Where has the season gone? Scrums, more bad calls and a TON of missed field goals make me want to throw a challenge flag! Let's do NFL Picks Week 11 and work through the angst! My season-long is doing well but last week was a challenge. Time to break out the Nostradamus touch Under each section, we will tabulate how it went with the previous week's predictions. Let's dive in!
NFL Picks Week 11
NFL Picks Previous Results: 5 Wins 3 Loss - Season 12-4
We break it down into three sections rather than just a straight list of games. The "Pick Em" section is a list of straight picks and a quick overview for the upcoming week. "Over Under NFL Pick" is a spotlight on a game for the week that may have a twist to it you have not thought about or overlooked. Last is THE "NFL Week Pick" and that is the game we dive a little deeper into.
NFL Picks Week 11 - Pick Em
NFL Picks Week Previous Results: 3 Wins 2 Loss - Season 8-3
Texans vs Ravens
Ravens is the easy pick but tap the breaks just a wee bit. On paper, the Ravens are the favorite across the board. On the field, the Texans have Deshaun Watson and THAT is the fly in any games ointment. Yet even with Watson's magic, the Houston D doesn't have JJ Watt (again) and that is too much pixie dust not on the field to take down a Baltimore team that is getting grittier and more confident every week with the other QB phenom on the field Lamar Jackson.
Both teams score in the 20's but Ravens get the W
Cardinal vs 49ers
It's true. San Francisco lost last week to a Seahawks team that got its defensive scheme from the Cardinals game earlier this season the Niners barely won 28-25. A rapidly improving Kyler Murray on one side vs gunslinger Jimmy G on the other is intriguing but that is not the story of this game. The gripping drama is a coaching staff that has to find a way to deal with this defensive scheme sans All-World TE Kittle but still having the best defense in the NFL coming off a killer loss to the Seahawks and facing a divisional rival they are much more talented than. Would you want to be the Cardinals facing a highly motivated Bosa and company on defense? Thought not.
Pick the 49ers and don't look back
NFL Picks Week 11 - Over Under
NFL Picks Week Previous Results: 2 Wins 0 Loss - Season 3-0
Cowboys vs Lions - Over/Under 48 points
The storyline is compelling. The best offense in the NFL is coming off a game at home they should have won. Dallas is under-achieving on both sides of the ball and have dug early holes for themselves in several games and the Lions HC Matt Patricia is a Bill Belichick defensive disciple who has a game plan for every situation. Forget all of that. Historically Jason Garrett has been able to get his players to respond when their backs are against the wall and make no bones about it, that is exactly where the Cowboys, Garrett, and his job security are. Yes, Prescott and company are going to put points up. But the Cowboys D is tired of losing and wants to deliver a complete game. Going up against a Staffordless Lions squad is just what the doctor ordered. If he somehow plays, take the over.
Take the under as the Cowboys D will come to play
Saints vs Buccaneers - Over/Under 49.5 points
Sean Payton and Drew Brees have never been held to 10 points at home before. Ever. The Falcons did just that last week and would you want to be the next defense on their dance card? The Buccs just cut former 1st round pick, Vernon Hargraves, so even though they may get a better effort on the field they are not more talented this week than last. On the other hand, Jameis Winston has been putting up some monster numbers under Bruce Arian's watchful eye.
49.5 is a lot - don't blink, take the over
NFL Week 11 Pick - Pick of the Week
NFL Picks Week Previous Results: 0 Wins 1 Loss - Season 1-1
Patriots vs Eagles
The angles are all over the map. Eagles are playing at home and tied for the lead in the NFC East. Wentz is getting more confident. Jay Ajay is rumored to be signed for the matchup. Philly is getting healthier. All portents give that heady scent of victory to the birds in the city of brotherly love. Forget all that. Seriously. Forget every bit. Why? Since 2001 (yes, that is when Tom Brady became the starter) New England is .776 in games after a loss. How big of an advantage is that? Look at it this way. If I told you your chances of winning were 25% would you make the bet? Exactly.
Take Belichick and Brady after a loss every time. Odds are, you come out a winner.
Another Left Coast Sports Post