Football DFS Starts and Sits Super Bowl Edition
It’s time for our DFS Starts and Sits Super Bowl Edition! The good news is that it is the Super Bowl! That bad news is that it is the Super Bowl, and football will be out of our lives for several months. So let’s make it count and make some money on the big game!
This week, since there is only one game and not a slate of games, we will be playing NFL Showdown rules for our DFS Starts and Sits. On DraftKings, this means you pick one captain, who costs 1.5X his salary and earns 1.5X his fantasy points, and five flex spots, regardless of position. This can include kickers or defenses as well. If you are playing FanDuel, they do not have defenses in Showdown, so keep that in mind. So let’s explore a couple best and worst options for captains as you keep your salary cap in mind.
I use the DraftKings salary cap as my basis for picks, which operates on a 50k salary but I know we have many FanDuel players as well. For reference, Fanduel operates on a 60k salary, so prices will appear higher on that platform.
DFS Start ‘EM
Raheem Mostert ($9,400 roster/ $14,100 captain)
Mostert put on a clinic in the NFC Championship game against the Packers, rushing 29 times for 220 and four touchdowns. That’s 51.6 fantasy points, not counting the captain’s spot multiplier.
The Chiefs have struggled against the run all season, but did manage to shut down Derrick Henry in the AFC Championship game. However, the Niners have a better overall rushing attack, paired with an amazing offensive line and an underrated blocker at tight end in George Kittle.
While some worry the Chiefs will get out to a big lead and Niners will have to abandon the run, I don’t know that I buy that. With Tevin Coleman potentially returning, it may eat into Mostert’s work a tad, especially since Coleman is the better pass-catcher of the duo. However, I don’t think this game is a blowout either way, which means San Francisco will stick with what got them here: running the ball.
Damien Williams ($9,800 roster/ $14,700 captain)
Since returning from injury, Williams has been the undisputed lead back in the Kansas City offensive attack. And if there’s one thing we know, it’s that an Andy Reid running back is worth having on your roster.
While Williams hasn’t rushed for a ton of yardage during the playoffs, he has had a nose for the end zone. Furthermore, he has garnered six targets in each game, raising his PPR floor. The Niners have an excellent pass rush and a great secondary, which may mean Mahomes won’t have time to go deep. Enter the safety valve: the running back dump-off.
With 26.8 and 19.9 fantasy points in the two postseason games, Williams is a good play as a captain who won’t break your bank, allowing you to still roster Mahomes or a few other KC weapons.
Travis Kelce ($9,600 roster/ $14,400 captain)
Kelce may be the other safety net Mahomes uses if he isn’t given ample time to go deep due to the pass rush. Kelce is a matchup nightmare for any team and is a bigtime red zone threat.
He was quiet with only three catches in the AFC Championship game, but had 10 catches for 134 yards and three touchdowns in the game before that, totaling 44.4 fantasy points.
Which Kelce will show up this weekend? Your guess is as good as mine, but teams generally lean on their stars in big moments. This is an instance where maybe you stack other Chiefs around him as well, if you believe the Chiefs will put up points, regardless of facing a top defense.
Patrick Mahomes ($12,600 roster/ $18,900 captain)
Look, I know how good Pat Mahomes is. That’s not what we are debating here. The cost of a captain’s spot for Mahomes is astronomical, though. It leaves little room for error and little budget to select the other players on your roster.
I’ll say this: If you believe Mahomes will be the Super Bowl MVP and slice and dice the Niners defense just like any other team, then go for it. Personally, I think he will have a good, not great game, where he does enough to potentially get the win. I don’t think he’s tossing 4+ touchdowns on the Niners. Instead of putting him in the captain slot, like many rookie players will have the propensity to do, put him on your roster and build a lineup around one of his pass catchers.
The price is too steep and the margin for error too slim for the rest of your lineup to slot Mahomes into your captain spot. He could make me look silly for saying this, but I’ll take my chances. If you are playing multiple entries, maybe use him in a captain slot on one, just to cover your bases.
George Kittle ($8,400/ roster/ $12,600 captain)
This postseason, Kittle has been used primarily as a blocker. He has excelled at that role, and while you applaud his unselfish, team-first attitude, it has seen his fantasy numbers take a huge hit.
He has a combined four catches over the past two games, totaling fewer than eight fantasy points in the playoffs. Now, depending on if you think the Niners will be in a big hole at some point in the game, which I don’t think will be the case, he may be a cheap captain option. Even in some of his better performances of the season, there were only two instances where he eclipsed 25 fantasy points in a game. The Niners just don’t air it out enough for the volume to be there.
If, however, you think the game script will lead to San Francisco playing from behind, then take your shot at Kittle. I’d also recommend going all-in and taking a risk on Jimmy G at his cheap price tag, if you subscribe to this narrative. Otherwise, if you see a close game throughout or a Niners blowout, Kittle isn’t an advised option.
Those are your DFS Starts and Sits Super Bowl Edition. Good luck! Here’s to hoping your fantasy football players ball out and you cash out. See you next season!
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